Last updated on July 2nd, 2019 at 03:19 pm
Quick Stats on Gold Positioning
- The net long position among speculators rose 28.1K contracts to 184.2K contracts
- A build of 9.6K in gross longs left it standing at 250.1K contracts
- A draw of 18.5K in gross shorts brought it to 65.9K contracts.
Positioning Take Away
There is always some excitement when any financial instrument, or a CoT report in this case, reaches an important milestone. However, I think it’s important to reflect on last week’s figures where there was a much more significant increase. In the prior week, the net long gold position rose by 69.4K contracts. This reflected the largest build in net longs (46K) seen this year.
This data, coupled with the candlestick patterns mentioned in the earlier published weekly forecast does not make the price of gold seem quite as bullish. The candlesticks show exhaustion while the data seems to signal roughly the same. This is mostly comparing week over week data and doesn’t necessarily affect a longer-term outlook.
In the charts, a move up with momentum is required to confirm a breakout. Similarly, next weeks data should show some strength in positioning to reaffirm the upward momentum in price seen earlier in June.
A possible explanation for some reluctance in positioning might be the significant overhead resistance that has come into play for gold. Considering that each approach to the $1350 area has been met with sellers over the past several years, there may have been some profit taking in the past week.
In this context, it will be important to assess CoT data if we do get above resistance, to provide some confirmation of a breakout. Unfortunately, this report reflects delayed data. It typically contains data up to Tuesday of the week but does not release until Friday. A lot can happen in that time frame.
Get the latest CoT report directly from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s website.