Gold Edges Lower on Stronger Dollar and Treasury Yields Ahead of U.S. CPI Data

gold bars

Gold prices went down on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar and the Treasury yields ticked up. The strong greenback made the bullion more expensive for holders of rival currencies. Meanwhile, higher yields dampened the appeal of the non-interest-bearing metal. In addition, investors are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the release of U.S. CPI data on Friday. Market participants are also monitoring the European Central Bank’s rate hike decision.

Spot gold is currently trading at $1,849.53 per ounce as of 0625 GMT.

ED&F Man Capital Markets analyst Edward Meir commented gold was steady over the last few weeks because of the perception that the U.S. inflation has peaked. Gold needs to higher inflation reading to get into upward momentum. However, economists polled by Reuters predicted core CPI to fall from 6.2% to 5.9% year-over-year.

DailyFX analyst Thomas Westwater suggested that U.S. CPI data is not likely to support gold prices. Instead, it would provide the key risk event for traders. A higher-than-expected core inflation figure would push bullion prices up. But if that happens, the Federal Reserve will likely take aggressive measures to bring down inflation.

Westwater also noted that gold is currently trading just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Any movement will point to the metal’s near-term direction. However, the 50-day SMA just crossed the 100-day SMA suggesting a bearish crossover.

FXStreet analyst Sagar Dua added that gold is trading in an Ascending Triangle pattern with the upward sloping resistance at $1,786.94 and the horizontal resistance at $1,896.69. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is in the 40.00-60.00 range confirming volatility in the upcoming sessions. Meanwhile, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average overlaps with bullion prices indicating further consolidation.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said her department is closely monitoring any effort to circumvent U.S. sanctions against Russia through the use of gold. Such transactions are sanctionable under President Joe Biden’s executive order to punish Russia for its invading Ukraine.

In a related development, the World Bank slashed its global growth forecast for 2022 by almost a third to 2.9%. World Bank President David Malpass said global growth could drop to 2.1% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023 if downside risks materialized. These risks include supply-chain disruptions, COVID-19 lockdowns in China, the Russia-Ukraine war and stagflation.